2024–25 European Golden Shoe — Top Contenders
The European Golden Shoe is awarded to the leading goalscorer in the top divisions of Europe every year. Typically, a striker is expected to lift this trophy. However, the last decade and a half saw Messi and Ronaldo, two non-No 9’s, dominate this field and win a combined 10 times. As they approached the twilight of their career, the competition opened up, with a diverse set of candidates now eyeing for this award.
Before proceeding, we should talk about the scoring system in place. Somewhere along the 80s and 90s, UEFA realized it might be easier for a player to score 40 goals in the Welsh league than 30 in Spain or Italy. And having winners from the Armenian and Latvian leagues wasn’t getting enough attention to the award. Therefore, in 1997 they put a weighted scoring system in place. A goal in the top five leagues (as per UEFA coefficient) wins you 2 points, from 6–22 you get 1.5, and below that just 1. As a result, it’s almost certain the winner comes from one of the top 5 leagues and that’s where our focus will be too.
Now, on to the main candidates -
Honorable Mention — Viktor Gyokeres
Swedish striker Viktor Gyokeres has adapted to life in Lisbon like a duck takes to water. His 29 league goals across the 2023–24 season helped Sporting to their 2nd league title in 4 years. Gyokeres has also started the new season with a bang, scoring 16 goals so far in 10 league games, with Sporting victorious in each one of them.
Under the current points system, the Swede would have to significantly perform his fellow goalscorers from the top 5 leagues to win the Golden Shoe. He could always take inspiration from Sporting legend Mario Jardel, who twice won the Golden Shoe (1998–99 and 2001–02) despite the stated disadvantage.
Premier League
It’s hard to think of anyone other than Erling Haaland topping the scoring charts in England. With a blistering start that saw him score 10 goals in the first 5 games, he is one of the favourites to win the Golden Shoe despite his recent injury struggles.
A possible challenger to the Norweigien could be Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, who has been inspiring the London-based side’s return to the UCL spots. Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo has also been very impressive so far but for how long can he continue this run of form is to be seen.
Other possible, albeit less likely, candidates include former Premier League Golden Boot winners like Mohamed Salah and Son Heung-min as well as traditional no. 9s like Dominic Solanke, Ollie Watkins, and Alexander Isak. Haaland’s teammate and the 2024 Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden has endured a difficult start to the season, effectively seeming out of this race.
La Liga
The 2023–24 season saw a close competition for the Pichichi Trophy between Artem Dovbyk, Alexander Sorloth, and Jude Bellingham. But that might not be the case this time. Since his reunion with manager Hansi Flick, Robert Lewandowski has returned to his goal-scoring best. With 14 league goals already, he is leading the overall Golden Shoe chart and eyeing for his 3rd such title. He is well-supported on this mission by teammates Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, who themselves have a fair shot at this.
The man who was supposed to challenge Lewandowski, Real Madrid’s marquee signing Kylian Mbappe, is yet to find his groove in Spain. But the 2018 World Cup winner is far too good to be written off. His teammate Vinicius Jr is yet to break the 20 league goals barrier to be considered among the favourites.
Sorloth, last season’s runner-up, has now switched to Atletico Madrid and will compete with teammates Antonio Griezmann and Julian Alvarez for the goals. Other outside contenders include Villarreal’s Ayoze Perez, Osasuna’s Ante Budimir, and the evergreen Iago Aspas of Celta Vigo.
Serie A
Lautaro Martinez, who simply dominated the league last season, should have been the automatic favourite this time too. But teams have now started double-marking him, resulting in fewer goals for the Argentinian. Fortunately for Inter, his strike partner Marcus Thuram has made the most of the extra space afforded to him. Thuram currently sits second among goals scored, only behind a surprise leader in Mateo Retegui. The new Atalanta signing has been in sublime form, with 10 goals in as many games.
Also among the contenders is Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic, who is still trying to match his Fiorentina numbers. Romelu Lukaku, after a recent move to Napoli, is also hoping to regain his prolificacy under Antonio Conte. Among the non-strikers, both Christian Pulisic and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia could look to cause an upset.
Two major absentees this time are Olivier Giroud and Victor Osihmen, who currently play in Los Angeles FC and Galatasaray respectively.
Bundesliga
With 36 goals in 32 games, Harry Kane’s debut Bundesliga campaign at Bayern Munich was nothing short of extraordinary. At one point, the reining European Golden Shoe holder seemed on track to break the Bundesliga record for most goals in one season. He is once again leading the chart in Germany, being closely chased this time by Eintracht Frankfurt’s Omar Marmoush. The Egyptian forward is having one of those breakout seasons where he could uplift his game to the next level.
The league’s other two star African strikers, Serhou Guirassy and Victor Boniface will also aim for the topscorer spot. The former has joined Borussia Dortmund this season and is gradually finding his rhythm back after an initial injury.
Other possible challengers include RB’s strike pairing of Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko, as well as Stuttgart’s Deniz Undav.
Ligue 1
For the last six seasons, Kylian Mbappe dominated the scoring numbers in France. But his departure to Spain has left the field wide open. While many at PSG are trying to fill his shoes, Bradley Barcola is the name that has come closest. The 22-year-old has been very impressive under Luis Enrique, contributing not just with goals but also in other areas of the game.
A strong challenger to him will be Lille’s Canadian forward Jonathan David who has consistently been putting up strong numbers since 2020. We may also see Mason Greenwood, now playing for Marseille under Roberto De Zerbi, put up a fight. Lyon captain Alexandre Lacazatte hasn’t had the strongest of starts but he too can pick up the pace as the season proceeds.
Predictions
League Topscorers
Premier League — Erling Haaland
La Liga — Robert Lewandowski
Serie A — Dusan Vlahovic
Bundesliga — Harry Kane
Ligue 1 — Jonathan David
European Golden Shoe Winner
Realistically the competition appears between previous winners Haaland, Lewandowski and Kane. Kane might witness a drop this season due to defences adapting to his game better. In addition, the Bundesliga being an 18-team league puts him at a disadvantage. Lewandowski has had the strongest start. Due to his age being on the wrong side of 30, however, his output is expected to decline. Haaland’s performance has dropped across the last few games and he has seemed suspectable to injuries. However, in the absence of another genuine striker, with even Foden struggling to find the net, City will be heavily dependent on the Norweigein for goals. Therefore, my favourite to win the Golden Shoe is Erling Haaland.
